Points permutations: How Brown can clinch title on Gold Coast

From 2025, everything will be on the line with the new Finals system, where four drivers will go to the final round with a shot at championship glory.

However, there's a title to be won, and there's a chance it could be clinched this weekend.

Triple Eight Race Engineering secured the teams’ championship at the Repco Bathurst 1000, with the ultra-consistent Will Brown in the box seat for the drivers’ title.

With 600 points left to win, Brown could conceivably clinch the 2024 championship at this weekend’s Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500.

Given the drama of this season, there’s every chance it could happen, and every chance Broc Feeney, Chaz Mostert and Cam Waters will take it to the season-ending VAILO Adelaide 500.

With the Queenslander's first chance coming at Surfers Paradise, we’re here with the points permutations to explain how he can do it, and what the others need to do to stop him.

Who's in contention?

There are four drivers still mathematically in contention, and four races left across the Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500 and VAILO Adelaide 500.

Brown left Bathurst in 2538 points, 204 ahead of Red Bull Ampol Racing teammate Feeney, 225 ahead of Walkinshaw Andretti United star Mostert, and 464 ahead of Tickford Racing ace Waters.

Points standings ahead of Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500

Can Brown win the title on the Gold Coast?

Yes, but Brown will need slip-ups from his three rivals to do so. Brown could win the title on Sunday, but not before.

Across the final two rounds, 600 points are on offer — 150 for each race, and 300 over the course of the weekend.

A maximum 150-point haul for Brown in the Saturday race on the Gold Coast won’t be enough to clinch the title before Sunday, but it could push him towards the magical 300-point mark.

Put simply, Brown will be crowned champion in Surfers Paradise if he leaves the penultimate round with a lead of 301 points or more over Feeney, Mostert or Waters.

How the others can stop him

To stop the title being sewn up this weekend, Feeney needs to prevent Brown outscoring him by 97 points, and Mostert by 76 points.

Waters is an outside chance at the title, and needs to pull back 165 points over the weekend to be a mathematical chance in Adelaide. However, if Waters is 151 points behind after Saturday’s race, he will be out of contention by Sunday.

So, Feeney and Mostert are Brown's two key challengers, making it tricky for Triple Eight given both drivers are fighting for title glory.

Brown can’t lose the championship lead on Saturday, but a double DNF could see either Feeney or Mostert leave the Gold Coast with the orange numbers.

Taking the extremes of a double Brown DNF, Feeney could take the lead on countback with two sixth place finishes, while Mostert could finish as low as fourth twice.

Why countbacks matter

Brown has four wins, Feeney five, and Mostert and Waters three each. Should drivers be level on points, a countback will begin at race wins, followed by second places, third places and so on.

For example, Feeney has more wins than Brown, so should both drivers leave Gold Coast level on points, the driver with more wins will have the lead.

When it comes to minor placings, Brown is well-placed; Brown has finished second seven times to Feeney's three, Mostert's four, and Waters' two. Brown also have five third place finishes, ahead of Feeney and Mostert (three each) and Waters (once).

All told, Brown has a whopping 16 podiums in 20 starts this season, ahead of Feeney (11), Mostert (10) and Waters (six).

Spotlight on the Gold Coast

There is no formality, especially at Surfers Paradise, where Brown has a bad record.

In seven starts at the Surfers Paradise circuit, Brown's results read DNF, 11th, eighth, 24th, 11th, 11th and 11th. It's important to note the first three results were in co-driver races, meaning Brown has no solo top 10s on the Gold Coast.

Feeney's record is no better, his results reading 14th, DNF, 14th and eighth. Mostert is a two-time winner (2017 and 2018), while Waters famously held off Shane van Gisbergen to win 12 months ago.

The 2024 Repco Supercars Championship will resume at the Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500 on October 25-27. Tickets for the event are on sale now.

Live coverage can be found on Foxtel, with live streaming available on Kayo. The Seven Network will take free to air coverage. International viewers can follow all the action on Superview.