Points permutations: How the 2024 Super2 title can be won

After 11 races, the 2024 Dunlop Super2 Series appears to have come down to a two-horse race for the title, though three are in mathematical contention.

Remarkably seven drivers entered the weekend as chances, however it was always likely that four would fall by the wayside after today's race.

After reigning champion Kai Allen decimated the field in the opening three races of the year, a torrid run of recent form has seen his championship challenge collapse in the back end of the season.

As a result, Zach Bates and Aaron Cameron have emerged as the two heavyweights in the title fight, coming off the back of strong recent form for both.

Bates has finished in the top five in each of the past six races, whilst Cameron has claimed back-to-back victories in the past two, and would hold a sizeable lead had it not been for a power steering failure in Race 9 at Bathurst.

With 150 points on offer in the final race of the season, Supercars.com takes a look at how each of the three title contenders can win the 2024 Dunlop Super2 Series.

The state of play

A win for Cameron today has seen the gap between he and Bates close from 39 points to 27 points. A late error for Allen dropped him from third (which would've seen him fall to 51 points behind Bates), back to seventh at the finish, before being promoted to sixth after a post-race penalty for Jobe Stewart. As a result, the reigning champion is now 78 points behind Bates heading into the final race of the season.

Given how tight it is at the top of the championship, a tiebreak is also a possibility, which would come down to race wins. Should Allen emerge as a contender, he holds the upper hand after his blistering start to the season, with four wins to Cameron's two. More importantly, Cameron has two wins to Bates' single win, which could prove to be crucial if one of a number of scenarios plays out tomorrow.

How Bates can win

The 20-year-old Canberran is in the box seat to claim his maiden Super2 crown, and the Walkinshaw Group's first title of any kind since the 2009 Supercars teams' championship.

The easiest path to glory for the Canberran is to claim a podium, where he will claim the title no matter the performance of Cameron or Allen.

If Bates finishes inside the top 10, Allen can't win the championship.

If Bates finishes off the podium, he must finish within two positions of Cameron to claim the championship.

How Cameron can win

The 24-year-old Victorian has brought himself right into the picture having picked up two wins on the bounce for the revived Kelly Racing team, and starts from pole in the finale.

Cameron's best chance of an underdog title win is to win the race, and hope Bates doesn't finish on the podium.

Cameron will win the title on countback if he finishes second and Bates finishes fifth, as well as the following combinations: 3rd versus 6th, 5th versus 9th, 7th versus 12th, 8th versus 14th, 9th versus 16th.

Cameron will win outright with a fourth to Bates' eighth, or a sixth to Bates' 11th.

If Cameron finishes in the top six, Allen can't win the title.

If Bates finishes, Cameron must finish in the top nine to have a chance.

How Allen can win

Two shocking races at Bathurst, and a mistake today have left the 19-year-old South Aussie needing a lot of luck to fall his way if he is to go back-to-back in the Dunlop Series.

No matter what happens, Allen has to finish in the top 10 to have a chance.

If Allen wins, Cameron has to finish seventh or worse, Bates 11th or worse, Allen will beat Bates on a countback.

If Allen finishes second, Cameron has to be ninth, Bates 15th, Allen will beat Bates on a countback.

If Allen is third, Cameron has to be 10th, Bates a DNF, Allen will beat Cameron on a countback.

If Allen is fourth, Cameron has to be 12th, Bates a DNF, Allen will beat Cameron on a countback.

If Allen is fifth, Cameron has to be 15th, Bates a DNF, Allen will beat Cameron on a countback.

If Allen is sixth to 10th, Bates and Cameron have to DNF, Allen will take the title outright, or on a countback from Bates if he's 10th.

The 12th and final race of the 2024 Dunlop Series begins at 1:50pm local time/2:20pm AEDT tomorrow afternoon. Cameron will start from pole position, ahead of Bates and Allen.