The stat that almost guarantees title success after Tasmania

History is on the side of the driver who leads the championship leaving Tasmania, ahead of the two longest and biggest points races of the 2024 Repco Supercars Championship.

Will Brown has led the way since the Grand Prix in March, but Ford rival Chaz Mostert has dramatically closed the gap in recent rounds.

Brown has a 105-point lead over Mostert, with Broc Feeney 153 points down. They are the realistic contenders for the title, but Cam Waters and Matt Payne could easily find themselves in contention with a strong run through the enduros.

The enduros have been championship-points paying events since 1999, adding more weight to the two-driver events.

In 23 seasons since 2001, the driver leading the championship leading into the first enduro of the has gone on to win the championship 16 times, at a 70 percent strike rate.

Since the 300-point system was introduced in 2008, the pre-enduro points leader has become champion 14 times in 18 seasons at 78 percent.

Scoreboard pressure counts for plenty, and with Tasmania typically a Triple Eight stronghold, and just two rounds after the enduros, Brown could firmly emerge as the one to beat for the title after next weekend's round.

Who failed to close it out?

Four times in a five-year spell, the pre-enduro leader didn't win the title: Jason Bright (2004), Marcos Ambrose (2005), Craig Lowndes (2006) and Garth Tander (2008). Then, there's Jamie Whincup (2016), Scott McLaughlin (2017) and Shane van Gisbergen (2018).

All aforementioned drivers lost the lead through the enduros; as Ambrose won Sandown and finished fourth at Bathurst, Bright was 10th and 12th.

Ambrose had a shocker in '05, missing out at Sandown before infamously crashing with Greg Murphy at Bathurst, handing the ascendancy to Russell Ingall.

Lowndes was third and first in the 2006 enduros, but fell to pieces on the Gold Coast and Bahrain, allowing Rick Kelly to have the upper hand before their fateful Phillip Island showdown.

Then, there's Tander, who after winning the Phillip Island 500, stalled from pole in Bathurst before Mark Skaife clouted the Forrest Elbow wall.

Whincup was van Gisbergen's match in 2016, but also threw it away with a Sandown penalty for co-driver Paul Dumbrell, and disastrous redress drama at Bathurst. A year later, McLaughlin lost the lead after a Bathurst engine failure.

Van Gisbergen, meanwhile, kept pace with McLaughlin through Sandown and Bathurst, but a pit lane miscue on the Gold Coast handed the DJR Team Penske driver a lead he wouldn't lose.

So, who's the pressure really on?

On sheer weight of numbers, it's Brown's championship to lose. He has led the championship after 13 of 16 races, and has 13 podiums in 16 starts.

It's hard to ignore the form of Mostert, who has out-scored Brown by a whopping 174 points in just two rounds. However, there are still question marks over Walkinshaw Andretti United's Super Soft performance.

Feeney can't afford to lose any more points, but don't expect the #88 driver to play it safe. Feeney will have the great Whincup in his corner for the enduros, and they could be hard to stop.

The least pressure is on Ford duo Waters and Payne, who are in form and have reeled off wins and podiums in recent rounds. If any of the top three stumble, they must be in a position to capitalise.

Then, there's unpredictability over reliability. McLaughlin's engine DNF cost him dearly in 2017, and while the top three have had a smooth run so far, an incident like Feeney's heartbreaking gearbox issue in Bathurst last year could prove severely damaging.

Leading before the enduros (300-point era)

*Bathurst season finale, champion already decided

^Led before enduros, didn't win championship