Where star drivers tripped up, and how they can win 2025 title
Supercars
06 Nov
Will Brown and Broc Feeney will go it alone for the Repco Supercars Championship at the VAILO Adelaide 500, with their chief title rivals dropping out of contention in Surfers Paradise.
Ford trio Chaz Mostert, Cam Waters and Matt Payne combine for eight wins and 10 poles through 11 rounds, but neither driver will fight for the title at the final round.
At times, they were well and truly in with a shout, Mostert being just 63 points down in Tasmania. After Round 7, Mostert, Waters and Payne were 105, 386 and 423 points behind respectively. Four rounds later, they're 309, 428 and 909 points down. All three showed streaks of brilliance, but their campaigns fell over at different stages of the season.
There’s hope for next year as the Finals system arrives, especially for Mostert and Waters considering they've won at the majority of the circuits on the 2025 calendar. Payne will be in season No. 3, and Penrite Racing will be hoping they can make him a genuine threat.
Here’s what went wrong, and here's what needs to improve next season for the three Ford stars who came up short of Adelaide.
Results
With three wins and seven podiums, and a first pole since 2021, Mostert clearly went to a new level in his strongest season in years. Mostert was Triple Eight’s closest rival for the title, and WAU appeared to have the pace to go with Triple Eight.
What went wrong?
In a season that looked set to be defined by mistakes, WAU made too many. The team's wobbles started when Mostert was beaten by Brown out of the pits for the win at the Bathurst 500. There were slip-ups on the driving side, Mostert penalised for hitting Payne out of the lead at the Grand Prix, and Lee Holdsworth spinning at Sandown. However, the overall rap sheet ultimately paints a brutal picture for WAU; a wheel came off in Taupō, Mostert lost a Perth win over an unsafe release, the team had no qualifying pace on the Super Soft in Darwin, Sandown was a self-described "diabolical" day, before the deal was sealed with a gear position sensor issue and refuelling error in Surfers Paradise.
How can he win the 2025 title?
In 22 starts, Mostert has 17 finishes of seventh or better. In form like that, you’ll be in with a shout. But the wins dried up by July, so hitting winning form as the Finals approaches will be crucial. He knows how to do it; Mostert has won at nine of the 13 circuits we'll race at next year (Sydney, Grand Prix, Tasmania, Perth, Darwin, Ipswich, Bathurst, Gold Coast and Adelaide).
Results
With four wins and a season-high six pole positions, Waters was on the pace. Since his clash with Payne at the Grand Prix, in 17 starts, Waters has an impressive average finish of 5.0.
Just how strong was Waters' recent form been? Across the last eight rounds and 14 races, Brown has outscored Waters by just 40 points. In that same stretch, Brown has outscored Feeney by 109 points, and Mostert by 113 points.
What went wrong?
The infamous Payne Grand Prix clash came disputing the lead, so a win there would’ve been the tonic after a horror start to the year. An ill Waters lost a wheel and finished 22nd and 16th at the Bathurst 500, and was a staggering 388 points down after Round 3. You simply don’t win championships starting a season so far behind.
How can he win the 2025 title?
Start the year on the front foot, and Waters will be hard to wrangle. He now has wins at seven circuits on the 2025 calendar, one of which is an enduro (Bend), and two of the three Finals rounds (Gold Coast and Adelaide).
Results
It's been a solid sophomore season for Payne, who has an average finish of 8.6, and average grid position of 9.5. The Kiwi claimed poles at the Grand Prix and Taupō, and a stunning win from 10th in Townsville. He claimed podiums at the Grand Prix and led the majority of the Sydney opener with a bold strategy, and has recorded 14 top 10s.
What went wrong?
Notwithstanding the crashes at the Grand Prix and Bathurst, Payne has been solid. However, Penrite Racing had no pace in Darwin and Tasmania on the Super Soft. In the four races across the Darwin and Tasmania events, Payne had an average finish of 18.25.
How can he win the 2025 title?
Consistency. Payne and Penrite have been fast at most events, but not all. He was never truly in the hunt, starting the year with finishes of 10th and seventh in Bathurst, before losing valuable points in his Waters Grand Prix clash. Penrite Racing wants to be title contenders, but they simply can't be fighting in the midfield where their chief rivals are chasing trophies.
Reigning champ Brodie Kostecki, Nick Percat and Andre Heimgartner have also won races this season, but each have mixed tales to tell. Kostecki has hit recent form with wins in Bathurst and Surfers Paradise, but obviously missed the first two rounds, and struggled for consistency and speed until the enduros.
Matt Stone Racing driver Percat loomed as an early top four contender, winning at the Grand Prix and Tasmania. However, after starting the year with six straight top 10s in the first two rounds, Percat has an average finish of 13.4 in the nine rounds since. Brad Jones Racing's struggles highlight the plight of Heimgartner, who in 21 starts outside of his Taupō win, has an average finish of 13.3.
James Golding has been the quiet achiever, claiming a maiden pole in Darwin and podium at Sandown, and has run as high as fifth in the championship. Heading to Adelaide, he is only 22 points behind Payne, with Thomas Randle a further 49 points down. Either of the three could easily end the year 'best of the rest' behind the clear top four. Remarkably, if the Finals system was in place in 2024, Randle would be heading to Adelaide with a shout at the crown.
Among other contenders on the grid, Shell V-Power Racing Team's inconsistencies again let Will Davison and Anton De Pasquale down, combining for three podiums, all coming at Taupō. Jack Le Brocq showed glimpses of speed in his first Erebus Motorsport campaign, scoring a shock pole in Townsville.
Then, there's Team 18, which was unable to give Mark Winterbottom and David Reynolds a consistent competitive package, the former being moved on despite taking podiums at the Grand Prix and Darwin.
