How Finals Series would reshape 2024 title fight

The 2024 Repco Supercars Championship is firmly under the control of Will Brown heading into the final round of the season at the VAILO Adelaide 500.

Brown's Red Bull Ampol Racing teammate Broc Feeney is the only driver who can take the title away from him, sitting 180 points behind with 300 on offer in Adelaide.

It is highly likely that the Toowoomba product will claim his maiden title on Saturday in Adelaide, capping off a highly impressive maiden season for the Triple Eight outfit.

However, from 2025 the Final Series will eliminate such a likelihood from happening, with four drivers guaranteed to enter the rebranded VAILO Adelaide Grand Final as title contenders, which will be decided on Sunday unless there are exceptional circumstances.

Ahead of the 2024 VAILO Adelaide 500, Supercars.com takes a look at how this year's Repco Supercars Championship battle would look if the Finals Series was used.

How did we get here?

In 2025, the final three rounds of the Repco Supercars Championship (Gold Coast, Sandown, Adelaide) will make constitute the Finals Series, with Bathurst serving as the final round of the regular season. To use three rounds in this hypothetical 2024 Finals Series, Bathurst will become the first round of the Finals, meaning the Enduro Cup bonus points won't come into effect until the penultimate round on the Gold Coast. The Penrite Oil Sandown 500 becomes the cut-off race for the Finals, with big movements within the top 10 in points. James Golding's maiden podium finish launches him from ninth entering Sandown to being placed as the sixth seed heading into Bathurst, meanwhile Will Davison drops from seventh to ninth after co-driver Kai Allen gets caught in contact.

Race 20: Repco Bathurst 1000

Brown entered this year’s Repco Bathurst 1000 having wrapped up the 2024 Sprint Cup at Tasmania after fending off a surging Chaz Mostert in the back end of the Sprint Cup. Brodie Kostecki plays spoiler by winning with Todd Hazelwood, ensuring no one can lock in with a win. Matt Payne’s crash sends him tumbling out of title contention from fifth seed, whilst finishes of 17th for Nick Percat and 12th for Davison see them bow out of the title race, with Thomas Randle scraping through just 15 points ahead of Davison. Feeney jumps ahead of Mostert to be the second seed at the Gold Coast, Golding goes from sixth to fifth, and Anton De Pasquale jumps from 10th to sixth.

Race 21: Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500

Having claimed Enduro Cup honours with Scott Pye at Bathurst, Brown gets another 25 point boost heading into the Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500 as top seed. However, his Saturday qualifying crash once again threatens to turn the title race on its head, and his 25 bonus points save his championship lead after Feeney finishes third. Cam Waters becomes the first driver to book their place in the Grand Final with a dominant win, whilst teammate Randle has one of the best days of his Supercars career at a crucial time to leap from seventh to fourth. A gear position sensor failure for Mostert drops him from third to fifth on the outside looking in, whilst Golding also sees a potential podium go begging with a disastrous first pit stop.

Race 22: Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500

For the second time in as many events, Kostecki rains on the Finals Series parade to claim another victory, whilst second for Brown sees him clinch the all-important top seeding for Adelaide. Another third for Feeney clinches him second seeding, with Waters ensuring he remains in third with a fourth place finish. The battle for fourth is the focus of the race, with Mostert doing everything he can to drag himself out of the fire battling in the lead pack for the majority of the race, whilst Randle is forced to fight through the pack from 11th on the grid. Mostert’s chances almost literally evaporate with a fuel tower mix-up, with Randle capitalising to claim fifth and ensure it’s Triple Eight v Tickford for the drivers title. Golding misses out with another tyre change blunder from PremiAir, whilst De Pasquale bowed out on lap 1 after triggering the pile up at turn 11.

Key takeaways

There are plenty of learnings to take out from this real-world scenario, though of course it's important to note that the performances and decision-making of drivers would no doubt change with the added incentives of a berth in the next round of Finals. The most surprising performance is that of Randle, who after scraping through Bathurst as eighth seed performs when it matters in Surfers Paradise to place himself in title contention. Success throughout the season definitely proves to help Brown, who carries his top seeding through every race of the Finals, despite his Saturday qualifying crash on the Gold Coast. The fortunes of former teammates and sparring partners Waters and Mostert, who have had contrasting fortunes throughout the regular season and Finals Series. The Tickford man is able to rebound from a difficult start to the season to lock himself in to the Adelaide finale on Saturday on the Gold Coast, whilst on the flip side the Walkinshaw Andretti United spearhead's excellent season coming undone through no fault of his own on the Gold Coast. Teams and drivers alike can't afford to have any slip ups in the Finals next year, and the 2025 Repco Supercars Champion will have no doubt earned it over the back end of the season.